Newplay Prediction Index · Newplay 预测指数
Live crowd-implied probabilities from real trading activity on Newplay — the zero-gas-fee Web3 prediction market with USDC settlement on BNB Smart Chain and TRON. Updated continuously; this page is regenerated on every request and cached for 5 minutes.
本页展示 Newplay 零 Gas 费 Web3 预测市场上由真实交易形成的群体隐含概率，市场以 USDC 在 BSC 与 TRON 链上结算。数据持续更新，页面缓存 5 分钟。
Methodology · 计算方法
Each market is priced by a constant-product automated market maker. The implied probability of an outcome is its inverse pool share: p(i) = (1/pool_i) / Σ(1/pool_j). Markets bridged with Polymarket display the official CLOB Yes/No price instead. Probabilities reflect trading sentiment, not statistical forecasts, and do not constitute investment advice.
每个市场由恒定乘积自动做市商定价，结果的隐含概率为其资金池倒数份额：p(i) = (1/pool_i) / Σ(1/pool_j)。 与 Polymarket 桥接的市场展示其官方订单簿 Yes/No 价格。概率反映交易情绪而非统计预测，不构成投资建议。
Active markets · 进行中的市场 (49)
| Market 市场 | Category 类目 | Implied probability 隐含概率 | Volume 交易额 | Cutoff 截止 (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 海南防汛响应会升级吗 （截至 9月2日 23:40 北京时间） | politics | 是 50.0% / 否 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-02 15:40Z |
| 努利号10月7日会发射吗 （截至 10月30日 00:32 KST） | tech | 是 50.0% / 否 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-10-29 15:32Z |
| 罗曼望远镜能按计划升空吗 （截至 9月1日 00:31 KST） | tech | 是 50.0% / 否 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-31 15:31Z |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | geopolitical | Yes 14.5% / No 85.5% | 0 USDC | 2027-01-01 04:59Z |
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? | business | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| Gemini 4.0 released by...? | tech | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-01 04:59Z |
| OpenAI’s Astra released by…? | tech | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-11-01 03:59Z |
| OpenAI’s Astra released by…? | tech | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-11-01 03:59Z |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | geopolitical | Yes 10.5% / No 89.5% | 0 USDC | 2027-01-01 04:59Z |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | politics | Yes 4.5% / No 95.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | geopolitical | Yes 4.0% / No 96.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| Brazil Presidential Election | politics | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-10-04 00:00Z |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | politics | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2028-11-07 00:00Z |
| US x China tariff agreement by December 31? | geopolitical | Yes 89.5% / No 10.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | geopolitical | Yes 32.5% / No 67.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in August? | geopolitical | Yes 9.5% / No 90.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-31 23:59Z |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | people | Yes 16.5% / No 83.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | geopolitical | Yes 0.1% / No 99.8% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-31 23:59Z |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? | geopolitical | Yes 1.3% / No 98.8% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-01 03:59Z |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | business | Yes 9.5% / No 90.5% | 0 USDC | 2027-07-01 00:00Z |
| Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? | politics | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-20 00:00Z |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | politics | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2028-11-07 00:00Z |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? | geopolitical | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-31 23:59Z |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | politics | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2028-11-07 00:00Z |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | geopolitical | Yes 2.8% / No 97.3% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-30 00:00Z |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | geopolitical | Yes 20.5% / No 79.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 20:00Z |
| NBA: 2027 Champion | sports | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2027-07-01 00:00Z |
| Fed Decision in September? | business | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-16 00:00Z |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | geopolitical | Yes 21.0% / No 79.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-30 19:59Z |
| Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? | geopolitical | Yes 8.5% / No 91.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | geopolitical | Yes 52.0% / No 48.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 20:59Z |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | geopolitical | Yes 18.5% / No 81.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | geopolitical | Yes 23.5% / No 76.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | geopolitical | Yes 0.1% / No 99.8% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-31 00:00Z |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | geopolitical | Yes 99.3% / No 0.8% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-31 23:59Z |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | geopolitical | Yes 12.5% / No 87.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| Trump meets with Putin by September 30? | politics | Yes 5.9% / No 94.2% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | game | Yes 6.0% / No 94.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-11-19 00:00Z |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | politics | Yes 29.5% / No 70.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | crypto | Yes 13.5% / No 86.5% | 0 USDC | 2027-01-01 05:00Z |
| Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 | entertainment | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-10-31 00:00Z |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | crypto | Yes 14.8% / No 85.3% | 0 USDC | 2027-01-01 05:00Z |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | politics | Yes 65.5% / No 34.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-09 00:00Z |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | tech | Yes 0.1% / No 99.8% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-31 00:00Z |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | tech | Yes 0.1% / No 99.8% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-31 00:00Z |
| Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? | entertainment | Yes 95.6% / No 4.4% | 0 USDC | 2026-11-19 23:59Z |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | tech | Yes 58.5% / No 41.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | entertainment | Yes 66.0% / No 34.0% | 0 USDC | 2027-01-01 05:00Z |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? | crypto | Yes 2.1% / No 98.0% | 0 USDC | 2027-01-01 05:00Z |
Recently resolved / closed · 近期已判定或截止 (51)
| Market 市场 | Category 类目 | Final implied 最终概率 | Volume 交易额 | Cutoff 截止 (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look on day 1? (Lower Strikes) | game | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-28 23:59Z |
| Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol | sports | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-26 19:00Z |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? | geopolitical | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-30 23:59Z |
| What price will Ethereum hit in August? | crypto | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-01 04:00Z |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? | geopolitical | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2025-12-31 12:00Z |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | geopolitical | Yes 4.0% / No 96.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-20 23:59Z |
| Bitcoin above ___ on August 14? | crypto | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-14 16:00Z |
| What price will Bitcoin hit in August? | crypto | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-01 04:00Z |
| The International 2026: Winner | game | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-10 15:16Z |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on August 11? | crypto | Yes 0.1% / No 100.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-12 04:00Z |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August? | crypto | Yes 100.0% / No 0.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-01 04:00Z |
| Bitcoin above ___ on August 11? | crypto | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-11 16:00Z |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 11? | crypto | Yes 100.0% / No 0.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-11 16:00Z |
| LoL: Leviatan Esports vs RED Canids (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season | game | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-11 03:00Z |
| LoL: Dignitas vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season | game | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-10 02:00Z |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | geopolitical | Yes 100.0% / No 0.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-07-31 23:59Z |
| Will the game go to extra innings?: Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners | sports | Yes 0.5% / No 99.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-01 20:10Z |
| LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season | entertainment | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-02 00:15Z |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July? | business | Yes 0.1% / No 100.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-01 03:59Z |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | entertainment | Yes 0.1% / No 100.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-07-31 11:59Z |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds | sports | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-06 23:10Z |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | politics | Yes 0.1% / No 100.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-07-31 23:59Z |
| Largest Company end of July? | entertainment | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-07-31 23:59Z |
| Will the game go to extra innings?: Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays | sports | Yes 0.1% / No 100.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-07-29 22:40Z |
| What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? | business | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-01 03:59Z |
| AA Ponte Preta vs. Athletic Club | sports | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-07-28 22:30Z |
| Will the game go to extra innings?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins | sports | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-07-28 22:40Z |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds | sports | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-03 23:10Z |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause) | geopolitical | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-31 23:59Z |
| Will the game go to extra innings?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins | sports | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-07-27 22:40Z |